MozartV1, PascalFrancis, Corpus, bibRecord, 000104

Effects of Future Climate and Biogenic Emissions Changes on Surface Ozone over the United States and China

Identifieur interne : 000104 ( PascalFrancis/Corpus ); précédent : 000103; suivant : 000105

Effects of Future Climate and Biogenic Emissions Changes on Surface Ozone over the United States and China

Auteurs : Jin-Tai Lin ; Kenneth O. Patten ; Katharine Hayhoe ; Xin-Zhong Liang ; Donald J. Wuebbles

Source :

Journal of applied meteorology and climatology [ 1558-8424 ] ; 2008.

RBID : Pascal:08-0425600

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Qualité air, Pollution air, Ozone, Troposphère, Modèle prévision, Prévision pollution atmosphérique, Facteur milieu, Condition climatique, Changement climatique, Réchauffement, Précurseur, Facteur biogène, Eté, Performance algorithme, Pertinence prévision, Etats-Unis, Chine.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Air pollution, Air quality, Algorithm performance, Atmospheric pollution forecasting, Biogenic factor, China, Climate change, Climatic condition, Environmental factor, Forecast model, Forecast skill, Ozone, Precursor, Summer, Troposphere, United States, Warming.

Abstract

Future projections of near-surface ozone concentrations depend on the climate/emissions scenario used to drive future simulations, the direct effects of the changing climate on the atmosphere, and the indirect effects of changing temperatures and CO₂ levels on biogenic ozone precursor emissions. The authors investigate the influence of these factors on potential future changes in summertime daily 8-h maximum ozone over the United States and China by comparing Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4, (MOZART-2.4) simulations for the period 1996-2000 with 2095-99, using climate projections from NCAR-Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model simulations driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Alfi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios, with corresponding changes in biogenic emissions. The effect of projected climate changes alone on surface ozone is generally less than 3 ppb over most regions. Regional ozone increases and decreases are driven mainly by local warming and marine air dilution enhancement, respectively. Changes are approximately the same magnitude under both scenarios, although spatial patterns of responses differ. Projected increases in isoprene emissions (32%-94% over both countries), however, result in significantly greater changes in surface ozone. Increases of 1-15 ppb are found under Alfi and of 0-7 ppb are found under Bl. These increases not only raise the frequency of "high ozone days," but are also projected to occur nearly uniformly across the distribution of daily ozone maxima. Thus, projected future ozone changes appear to be more sensitive to changes in biogenic emissions than to direct climate changes, and the spatial patterns and magnitude of future ozone changes depend strongly on the future emissions scenarios used.

Notice en format standard (ISO 2709)

Pour connaître la documentation sur le format Inist Standard.

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C01	`01`		`ENG`	@0 Future projections of near-surface ozone concentrations depend on the climate/emissions scenario used to drive future simulations, the direct effects of the changing climate on the atmosphere, and the indirect effects of changing temperatures and CO₂ levels on biogenic ozone precursor emissions. The authors investigate the influence of these factors on potential future changes in summertime daily 8-h maximum ozone over the United States and China by comparing Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4, (MOZART-2.4) simulations for the period 1996-2000 with 2095-99, using climate projections from NCAR-Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model simulations driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Alfi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios, with corresponding changes in biogenic emissions. The effect of projected climate changes alone on surface ozone is generally less than 3 ppb over most regions. Regional ozone increases and decreases are driven mainly by local warming and marine air dilution enhancement, respectively. Changes are approximately the same magnitude under both scenarios, although spatial patterns of responses differ. Projected increases in isoprene emissions (32%-94% over both countries), however, result in significantly greater changes in surface ozone. Increases of 1-15 ppb are found under Alfi and of 0-7 ppb are found under Bl. These increases not only raise the frequency of "high ozone days," but are also projected to occur nearly uniformly across the distribution of daily ozone maxima. Thus, projected future ozone changes appear to be more sensitive to changes in biogenic emissions than to direct climate changes, and the spatial patterns and magnitude of future ozone changes depend strongly on the future emissions scenarios used.
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Format Inist (serveur)

NO :	PASCAL 08-0425600 INIST
ET :	Effects of Future Climate and Biogenic Emissions Changes on Surface Ozone over the United States and China
AU :	LIN (Jin-Tai); PATTEN (Kenneth O.); HAYHOE (Katharine); LIANG (Xin-Zhong); WUEBBLES (Donald J.)
AF :	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign/Urbana, Illinois/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University/Lubbock, Texas/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign/Urbana, Illinois/Etats-Unis (4 aut.)
DT :	Publication en série; Niveau analytique
SO :	Journal of applied meteorology and climatology ; ISSN 1558-8424; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 47; No. 7; Pp. 1888-1909; Bibl. 1 p.1/4
LA :	Anglais
EA :	Future projections of near-surface ozone concentrations depend on the climate/emissions scenario used to drive future simulations, the direct effects of the changing climate on the atmosphere, and the indirect effects of changing temperatures and CO₂ levels on biogenic ozone precursor emissions. The authors investigate the influence of these factors on potential future changes in summertime daily 8-h maximum ozone over the United States and China by comparing Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4, (MOZART-2.4) simulations for the period 1996-2000 with 2095-99, using climate projections from NCAR-Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model simulations driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Alfi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios, with corresponding changes in biogenic emissions. The effect of projected climate changes alone on surface ozone is generally less than 3 ppb over most regions. Regional ozone increases and decreases are driven mainly by local warming and marine air dilution enhancement, respectively. Changes are approximately the same magnitude under both scenarios, although spatial patterns of responses differ. Projected increases in isoprene emissions (32%-94% over both countries), however, result in significantly greater changes in surface ozone. Increases of 1-15 ppb are found under Alfi and of 0-7 ppb are found under Bl. These increases not only raise the frequency of "high ozone days," but are also projected to occur nearly uniformly across the distribution of daily ozone maxima. Thus, projected future ozone changes appear to be more sensitive to changes in biogenic emissions than to direct climate changes, and the spatial patterns and magnitude of future ozone changes depend strongly on the future emissions scenarios used.
CC :	001D16C02
FD :	Qualité air; Pollution air; Ozone; Troposphère; Modèle prévision; Prévision pollution atmosphérique; Facteur milieu; Condition climatique; Changement climatique; Réchauffement; Précurseur; Facteur biogène; Eté; Performance algorithme; Pertinence prévision; Etats-Unis; Chine
FG :	Climatologie dynamique; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Asie
ED :	Air quality; Air pollution; Ozone; Troposphere; Forecast model; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Environmental factor; Climatic condition; Climate change; Warming; Precursor; Biogenic factor; Summer; Algorithm performance; Forecast skill; United States; China
EG :	Dynamical climatology; North America; America; Asia
SD :	Calidad aire; Contaminación aire; Ozono; Troposfera; Modelo previsión; Previsión contaminación del ambiente; Factor medio; Condición climática; Cambio climático; Calefacción; Precursor; Factor biógeno; Verano; Resultado algoritmo; Pertinencia previsión; Estados Unidos; China
LO :	INIST-9644A.354000196034980030
ID :	08-0425600

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Pascal:08-0425600

Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Future projections of near-surface ozone concentrations depend on the climate/emissions scenario used to drive future simulations, the direct effects of the changing climate on the atmosphere, and the indirect effects of changing temperatures and CO<sub>2</sub>
 levels on biogenic ozone precursor emissions. The authors investigate the influence of these factors on potential future changes in summertime daily 8-h maximum ozone over the United States and China by comparing Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4, (MOZART-2.4) simulations for the period 1996-2000 with 2095-99, using climate projections from NCAR-Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model simulations driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Alfi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios, with corresponding changes in biogenic emissions. The effect of projected climate changes alone on surface ozone is generally less than 3 ppb over most regions. Regional ozone increases and decreases are driven mainly by local warming and marine air dilution enhancement, respectively. Changes are approximately the same magnitude under both scenarios, although spatial patterns of responses differ. Projected increases in isoprene emissions (32%-94% over both countries), however, result in significantly greater changes in surface ozone. Increases of 1-15 ppb are found under Alfi and of 0-7 ppb are found under Bl. These increases not only raise the frequency of "high ozone days," but are also projected to occur nearly uniformly across the distribution of daily ozone maxima. Thus, projected future ozone changes appear to be more sensitive to changes in biogenic emissions than to direct climate changes, and the spatial patterns and magnitude of future ozone changes depend strongly on the future emissions scenarios used.</div>
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<server><NO>PASCAL 08-0425600 INIST</NO>
<ET>Effects of Future Climate and Biogenic Emissions Changes on Surface Ozone over the United States and China</ET>
<AU>LIN (Jin-Tai); PATTEN (Kenneth O.); HAYHOE (Katharine); LIANG (Xin-Zhong); WUEBBLES (Donald J.)</AU>
<AF>Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign/Urbana, Illinois/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University/Lubbock, Texas/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign/Urbana, Illinois/Etats-Unis (4 aut.)</AF>
<DT>Publication en série; Niveau analytique</DT>
<SO>Journal of applied meteorology and climatology ; ISSN 1558-8424; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 47; No. 7; Pp. 1888-1909; Bibl. 1 p.1/4</SO>
<LA>Anglais</LA>
<EA>Future projections of near-surface ozone concentrations depend on the climate/emissions scenario used to drive future simulations, the direct effects of the changing climate on the atmosphere, and the indirect effects of changing temperatures and CO<sub>2</sub>
 levels on biogenic ozone precursor emissions. The authors investigate the influence of these factors on potential future changes in summertime daily 8-h maximum ozone over the United States and China by comparing Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4, (MOZART-2.4) simulations for the period 1996-2000 with 2095-99, using climate projections from NCAR-Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model simulations driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Alfi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios, with corresponding changes in biogenic emissions. The effect of projected climate changes alone on surface ozone is generally less than 3 ppb over most regions. Regional ozone increases and decreases are driven mainly by local warming and marine air dilution enhancement, respectively. Changes are approximately the same magnitude under both scenarios, although spatial patterns of responses differ. Projected increases in isoprene emissions (32%-94% over both countries), however, result in significantly greater changes in surface ozone. Increases of 1-15 ppb are found under Alfi and of 0-7 ppb are found under Bl. These increases not only raise the frequency of "high ozone days," but are also projected to occur nearly uniformly across the distribution of daily ozone maxima. Thus, projected future ozone changes appear to be more sensitive to changes in biogenic emissions than to direct climate changes, and the spatial patterns and magnitude of future ozone changes depend strongly on the future emissions scenarios used.</EA>
<CC>001D16C02</CC>
<FD>Qualité air; Pollution air; Ozone; Troposphère; Modèle prévision; Prévision pollution atmosphérique; Facteur milieu; Condition climatique; Changement climatique; Réchauffement; Précurseur; Facteur biogène; Eté; Performance algorithme; Pertinence prévision; Etats-Unis; Chine</FD>
<FG>Climatologie dynamique; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Asie</FG>
<ED>Air quality; Air pollution; Ozone; Troposphere; Forecast model; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Environmental factor; Climatic condition; Climate change; Warming; Precursor; Biogenic factor; Summer; Algorithm performance; Forecast skill; United States; China</ED>
<EG>Dynamical climatology; North America; America; Asia</EG>
<SD>Calidad aire; Contaminación aire; Ozono; Troposfera; Modelo previsión; Previsión contaminación del ambiente; Factor medio; Condición climática; Cambio climático; Calefacción; Precursor; Factor biógeno; Verano; Resultado algoritmo; Pertinencia previsión; Estados Unidos; China</SD>
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<ID>08-0425600</ID>
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Effects of Future Climate and Biogenic Emissions Changes on Surface Ozone over the United States and China

Effects of Future Climate and Biogenic Emissions Changes on Surface Ozone over the United States and China

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